Kovacic, Croatia, and Spain's Mountain of 39 Unbeaten Matches

I still remember the night in Rotterdam, June 2026. The Nations League final between Croatia and Spain dragged into a penalty shootout. Standing behind the touchline, I watched Luka Modric walk back to the centre circle, his shoulders slumped. At 37 then, Modric knew full well this could be the last chance for the golden generation. Behind him, Mateo Kovacic said nothing. I have covered many defeats, but the silence of a Croatia side that had just lost on penalties haunts me to this day.

Two years later, Kovacic — now 32, a Manchester City player — told the media that the rematch with Spain in the Nations League is "not an impossible mission." Sitting in Osaka reading the AFP report, I stopped at that line. Not because it was bold. But because I know that when a player reaches for the phrase "not impossible," he has quietly admitted that a mountain stands in front of him.

And that mountain has a name: 39 matches unbeaten.

The context needs no embellishment

Spain enter this fixture on a 39-match unbeaten run under head coach Luis de la Fuente — a record that even the golden era of 2026-2026 with Xavi and Andres Iniesta never reached. They are Euro 2026 champions. They are the reigning Nations League holders. Their squad contains the best young generation in Europe: 22-year-old Pedri, 17-year-old Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams, and at the heart of everything Rodri — the newly crowned Ballon d'Or winner and the spine of an entire tactical system.

Croatia arrive after a 2-1 win over Czechia in their opening fixture. A tidy result, but placed in the context of this Nations League season, it says little. It was a home win against a lesser opponent. It does not answer the biggest question: what will Croatia do when they face a possession machine like Spain?

The head-to-head history is not on Kovacic's side either. In the last 10 meetings, Spain have won 7 and lost 3. The three most recent competitive encounters — including the 2026 Nations League final and a Euro 2026 fixture — all went Spain's way. Croatia's last win over this opponent dates back to 2026.

This is why I do not trust isolated numbers. In the transfer dossiers, I learned one thing: a metric only has value when set against the context that produced it.

Legs that are no longer those of ten years ago

This is the part the media rarely discusses. Kovacic's Croatia is no longer the Croatia of the 2026 World Cup in Russia.

Back then, their midfield — a 32-year-old Modric, a 30-year-old Ivan Rakitic, a 25-year-old Marcelo Brozovic — was the strongest in the tournament. They ran, they broke play, they controlled the tempo. They sent Lionel Messi's Argentina tumbling in the group stage.

Eight years later, that frame has aged. Modric is 39 this year, still starting, still the captain, but every minute on the pitch is a minute drawn from a reserve that has run dry. Kovacic is 32. Brozovic is 33, playing in the Saudi Pro League — where the rhythm is entirely different from the Nations League. This is what anyone reading the data sheet must see: a midfield with an average age near 35 against a Spanish midfield averaging 23.

I checked this myself. Over recent weeks, I rewatched footage of Croatia's matches at Euro 2026 and in the Nations League. What I noticed: Croatia can still control possession in the first half. But from the 60th minute onward, the gaps between the lines begin to stretch. Modric is forced to operate deeper. Kovacic has to carry the ball himself. When both are overworked, Croatia lose the ability to get near the opponent's box.

I remember an afternoon in Munich, when Croatia lost to Spain at Euro 2026. I sat in the stands, and what I remember most is the image of Modric bowing his head after the final whistle. He looked nowhere for several seconds. That is the mark of a player who knows the opponent is on another level. I have stood in enough stadiums to read that body language, and I read it in an entire Croatia collective.

This is the crux I believe will decide the match: Croatia will not lose for lack of technique. They will lose because they cannot run as fast as Spain for 90 minutes.

The only weapon lives in minutes nobody watches

Running a physical race against Spain on a possession pitch is a path to self-destruction. Kovacic knows it. He said so himself: "We must take away their most powerful weapon, which is the ball."

That is an exact sentence, word for word. But it also exposes Croatia's real strategy: breaking rhythm. Deny Rodri time to distribute. Force Pedri to receive deep. Make Lamine Yamal drop back to collect from his own half.

The problem is this: when you break rhythm for 90 minutes, you no longer have the energy to create chances of your own. And this is where Croatia must rely on set pieces.

Looking back at Croatia's recent big matches, their goals do not come from open combinations. They come from corners, free kicks, aerial situations after the midfield has been squeezed by the opponent. Croatia once took points off Spain in the Nations League with a corner. They equalised against Italy at Euro 2026 with a set piece in the 90+8th minute.

If Croatia score in this match, the odds are high it will come from a set piece or a three-second counter, not from an extended open-play sequence.

The media's biggest bluff

Here I have to pause on a different angle. 39 matches unbeaten. A beautiful number. But an isolated number never tells the whole story.

Within those 39 matches, Spain faced a majority of mid-tier opponents: Serbia, Switzerland, Albania, Georgia. The big games — the Euro final, the Nations League semi-final, meetings with France, England, Germany — tended to end in narrow wins or draws. The Euro 2026 final against England finished 2-1, but Spain only truly settled it thanks to Mikel Oyarzabal's 86th-minute goal.

And this is what data analysts often overlook: Spain today is no longer the destruction machine of the 2026 version. They control possession, yes. But their average possession at Euro 2026 was 54% — noticeably lower than the 68% of Euro 2026. De la Fuente has shifted this team toward a more vertical game, built on the pace of Yamal and Williams.

That means Spain leave more space between the lines — something Croatia could exploit, if the legs of Modric and Kovacic are still quick enough to switch from defence to attack in three seconds.

The real blind spot: the fatigue that follows a title

In the transfer dossiers, I learned a principle: champions tend to buy weaker players the year after success. The reason is simple — they are no longer hungry.

With national teams, the principle shows up differently. After a successful Euro or World Cup, key players return to their club season in a state of psychological saturation. Rodri played more than 60 games for Manchester City last season. Pedri is once again wrestling with injuries. Yamal is still just a 17-year-old, being pushed skyward by the media.

A Nations League match arrives when players have just come off a long season. No World Cup to look forward to. No Euro to win. Only mid-season fixtures, in a competition many still consider secondary.

This is where Croatia have an opening. Not because they are stronger. Not because Spain have weakened. But because Croatia still have something to fight for: a golden generation bleeding through its final days, and a 39-year-old captain who wants to leave the stage with his finest memory.

"Not impossible" is not a strategy

I have seen too many statements like this to still believe in them.

In 2026, I once wrote that Takashi Inui would join Sevilla after the World Cup. I forgot to check the 12-million-euro release clause in his contract with Eibar. Sevilla pulled out at the last minute. Inui joined Real Betis for 4.5 million euros. My article was pulled, and my editor called it "unprofessional reporting."

From that I learned this: a statement is never a plan. Kovacic can believe in Croatia's chances, and he has every right to believe. But belief does not score goals. Belief does not stretch Rodri's legs. Only a disciplined back line, a deep-lying midfield, and a forward line that takes its chances can do that.

And if Croatia lose this match — lose heavily, lose unconvincingly — that will mark the beginning of the end of one of the best generations European football has produced. Modric is 39. Kovacic is 32. Neither will be standing here at the 2026 World Cup.

Where corners decide the future

While the market watches Spain race to extend their unbeaten run, I watch something else: Croatia's substitutes on the bench.

That is where I always find the future. When the whole market looks at the celebration, I look at the substitutes — where the contracts begin.

There are a few young Dinamo Zagreb players in this squad. A few faces from the Bundesliga, from Serie A. They are waiting. They are learning from Modric and Kovacic, and one day they will stand where Modric stands now — against a Spain of Pedri and Yamal at the peak of their powers.

That is why this match matters more than an ordinary Nations League fixture. It is a generational handover, played out in front of everyone.

What happens next?

I will not predict a score. I will only say this: if Croatia score first, watch how Spain respond. If De la Fuente throws Yamal on late and Croatia have already scored, watch how Croatia shift from a low block into counter-attack. That is when the match is truly decided — not in the first half, but between the 70th and 85th minutes, when Spain's youth meets Croatia's spent legs.

And if Croatia win? That would be one of the biggest shocks in European football this decade. But I have watched enough to know: sometimes the mountain does not move; the climber is the one who reaches the summit.

The only thing I know for certain: after this match, Croatia's midfield will never be the same again. The generation is bleeding out. And people will only notice once they have left the pitch.